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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: February 6th, 2025

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  • Statistics, anyone?

    If we’re a simple ‘normal’ population, your wife’s idea holds; there should be 1 in 1000 athlete in every 1000 people. to get a 1 in 1000 athletic performance with a 50% confidence you need only take 693 samples. So if many thousands have played, you’d expect to have seen peak performance.

    But we aren’t distributed like that. Z score analysis of a measurable sport indicates a known top athlete like Usain Bolt is in the order of 5 standard deviations from the norm (depending what we consider the norm data set). That’s more like 1 in a million to one in 10 million to get a Bolt. Which implies millions need to try (and train) to get a Bolt level performance (3 humans in that tier so far, implies between 3 & 30 million have tried). So a Bolt seems to be reaching human limits, reinforcing the wife position position for that sport - we are approaching the human limit.

    But wait - that is a popular sport, with a single simple measure. If there were multiple relevant independent measures (say hitting and pitching, or running and throwing), even just 2, the odds become astronomical of finding the best. A dual 1 in 1000 is a 1 in a million. A dual z=5 athlete is 1 in 12 trillion.

    So the implication is that for more complex sports where multiple attributes apply, it is much more likely we have not yet seen peak human capabilities. It’s also much harder to measure and recognize when we do - so props to the legendary players, and keep searching for them. We won’t know how good they really were until we sample (play) the sport for hundreds or thousands of years. Finding peak is incredibly lucky/unlikely for our most popular complex sports.


  • I have been to the science fair, and the county science fair, and the state science fair.

    No, I didn’t touch my daughters project.

    At county, there was an obvious element of parent projects, but judges interviewed kids and weeded out those who didn’t know much about the project. Some winners there still had obvious assists, but at least they could interview.

    State was wild (CA). No parents in the hall during the day. Kids reported massive judging variations, little standardization and obvious tech bias. Her cognitive science category gave out all 3 awards for AI related projects.

    Check in was insane. Allowed material were the board and a few feet of space on the table. People were pulling in with trailers. Massive arguments, tears.

    Day of, kids were wearing fitted suits. Coordinated family outfits with ostentatious wealth on show. What a bizarre view of America.



  • Not quite. Dark forest says it’s dangerous out there, so everyone else is quiet. Not that we’re dangerous, but that we’re at risk by being noisy.

    We pose no real threat to any other civilization, we can’t get to them.

    It’s possible we’re being avoided because we’re loathsome in some way or various ways, but that’s not dark forest.

    It’s also possible we pose a risk we don’t understand (disease, culture, loudness) so we’re avoided / quarantined, but that is also not dark forest.

    More like Ostracized Planet.





  • Fair point. It lasted 4-5 years solid. 6-8 clearly rapid failure.

    Quickly is relative to the 10 year warranty.

    I paid (usd 5k plus - king size) with a warranty in mind. Was told ‘our material is different, worth it’ - Full sales job. I’m technical, but details matter and they’re proprietary. I trusted the warranty + brand, which was a bad, expensive move.

    Realistic expectations - memory foam lasts 4-5 years, more or less depending on pressure and humidity, and should be priced accordingly. YSK!









  • So I imagine myself at the future factory in karma heaven trying to decide what I get to be and when.

    Humans are interesting, they experience much over a short time, and deeply. Early humans have a visceral and satisfying life, hunting gathering and reproducing. Late humans, which is most of them, have safe stable lives with infinite opportunities around infinite stars.

    Middle humans struggle. They multiply and have disease. They reach resource limits and have war. They are a brutal combination of technology and animal tendency which wipes out other humans and predators.

    And their triumphs are glorious. From steam to electricity to transistors to space flight in a few generations. They take poetry and teach machines to sing. They make their universe larger by finding how much space is between atoms. They smash the atoms and fuse them together again on the way to their future.

    I make my choice. Right there. Right at the middle of the change point. That’s when, that’s where.

    Hello friends. Im here for the positive change. Im struggling, its what we do. Enjoy