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Cake day: January 24th, 2024

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  • If you mean the Monty Hall paradox, this is how I’ve recently been able to understand it.

    You start with a 1/3rd chance of being right. That’s a 2/3rds chance you are wrong. Your first pick is likely wrong.

    The host now must open a losing door. Since you likely already picked a losing door, the host likely only has one option for which door to reveal.

    So since chances are best that you first picked a wrong door, then the host picked the other wrong door. Which means the one that hasn’t been picked by anyone yet is likely the winning door.