When the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, launched his devastating assault on Israel on 7 October, the militant group’s exiled leadership, like the rest of the world, was apparently caught unawares.
From plush penthouses in Beirut, Doha and Istanbul, they watched the carnage that killed 1,200 Israelis unfold, as well as Israel’s retaliatory campaign on the Gaza Strip. In the past four months Israel has killed an estimated 27,600 people, displaced 85% of the 2.3 million population and razed more than half of the besieged Palestinian territory’s infrastructure.
In the early days of the war, while Sinwar’s cadre was calling on Arab peoples across the Middle East to join the fight against Israel, the Doha-based chair of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, appeared to focus on damage control. Talks mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the US resulted in a ceasefire and hostage and prisoner swaps at the end of November that lasted seven days before collapsing.
Now, it seems that those roles have reversed. According to reports, it is Sinwar and his men, exhausted from the fighting, who want to reach a temporary truce deal, and Haniyeh’s office that is demanding more concessions and holding out for a complete Israeli withdrawal.
I don’t think anyone can really know that.
Sinwar’s hiding in a tunnel somewhere and is much more likely to be killed imminently. It’s Haniyeh that’s meeting with Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. Those two don’t like each other and Qatar has a better relationship with Haniyeh.
Who knows how he’s using that leverage? Who knows how Qatar weighs their positions? It’s not knowable for certain.
If Haniyeh says no and Qatar passes it on as a no, what could Sinwar do about it right now? Not a whole lot.
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It could mean that. But it could also mean that they just respect his position as much or more.
And yeah, they absolutely might also be on the same page. The article is clear that these are rumors that aren’t verifiable. There isn’t a way to easily report on them though. This tracks with reporting about a widening split that’s been going on for a long time but we should take it with a grain of salt for sure.