still the frontrunner for president to be legally elected in 2024.
The front runner? Really?
I’m not being sarcastic. Im genuinely interested, but can’t be arsed to start going through polls because it’d mean going through the biases of the pollers.
You’re wrong about a lot and you’re presenting your opinions as fact. Trump doesn’t underpoll by that amount now.
There was a phenomenon in 2016 where people were reluctant to tell pollsters they were voting for him, because they were embarrassed. Now Trump supporters are the loud minority of voters. And Biden is the boring safe choice. Biden voters are less likely to stay on the phone and answer questions.
Also, national polls mean very little. You have to actually look at the swing state polls to find out who’s winning. And there’s not much data this far from the election.
Finally, we can tell there’s something wrong with current polling just because “Mr. Brainworms” RFK Jr polls around 10% right now. No one is going to vote for him, and definitely not 10% of the population. People are just fucking with the pollsters right now. Do you know anyone seriously considering voting for RFK Jr?
It’s almost certainly true the RFK’s support will decline as we get closer to the election. This is a common trend with third party candidates.
However, it’s not totally clear which candidate those voters will choose. My sense is that RFK is not particularly popular but is a stand-in for the rejection of both candidates at the moment. However, most of these voters will switch over as the reality of RFK’s loss becomes more real. Often, last minute voting decisions will be based on the conditions and media narratives happening immediately around the time of the election. So the implications of what you’re saying on who will win are not certain currently.
Yes, that’s right. Basically you can’t rely on polls this far from the election.
The question says “if the election were held today, who would you vote for”. But the election isn’t today, and the person answering the question knows that. So you see more people answer with third party candidates then would actually vote that way.
Not only that, but candidates’ GOTV efforts do not happen until the election is approaching soon. That’s what actually wins elections, not polls from 6 months before.
That’s… not how statistics work there, friend. If there’s a 10% chance of something happening per person and I have ten people in a room, that doesn’t guarantee that one of them will have the thing happen. In fact, my sample could have 10/10 happenings or absolutely nothing happen and the statistic value would stay the same, because it’s an average of the entire population.
Trying to apply anecdotal evidence to statistics and then calling the statistic false when it doesn’t align with your anecdote is kinda doing things arse-backwards.
Maybe. Maybe not. Pollsters typically adjust methodology between elections so this type of analysis is questionable.
He hasn’t led in the average but is currently within the margin of error. The available evidence suggests a toss up but we won’t know for sure until after the election, as always.
Consistent in two elections? That’s not consistent. That’s not even data, let alone a trend.
As I said, pollsters adjust the demographic weighting based on election results. It is possible they will again underestimate Trump’s performance. It’s also possible they will overestimate it. Only time will tell.
But regardless of that issue, it is within the margin of error—that is a statistical reality irrelevant to your speculation about polling errors.
Polling probably has taken a dive in accuracy since then, though. Uptake in cell phone use in younger generations has been lingering over the industry for a long time, and it’s finally caught up with them.
72% chance from here. Probably high enough that swing state voters opted to stay home. This was the vibe practically all October. The FBI felt confident enough in her win to announce they were investigating her to appear unbiased.
Polling being inaccurate for whatever reason doesn’t change the article after article assuring everyone Hillary had it in the bag.
From the nearly all the polls I see, yes. But like you said, bias of pollers. I’ve seen a few that go more in depth to try and figure out the “responds to polls” bias, but I still only see biden ahead by a margin. With those small numbers of concentrated effort vs the wide reach general polls, trump is. It does not instill any level of confidence in me that the “general” polls don’t reflect the “general” voting bias. Even without all of this analysis, just a few million voting for trump is unbelievably concerning to not just the future of the US, but the world that this single country dominates. These fascists are campaigning on the cut your nose to spite your face philosophy.
The front runner? Really?
I’m not being sarcastic. Im genuinely interested, but can’t be arsed to start going through polls because it’d mean going through the biases of the pollers.
Really it’s too close to call but he does appear to have a slight edge if you had to pick a favorite.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
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You’re wrong about a lot and you’re presenting your opinions as fact. Trump doesn’t underpoll by that amount now.
There was a phenomenon in 2016 where people were reluctant to tell pollsters they were voting for him, because they were embarrassed. Now Trump supporters are the loud minority of voters. And Biden is the boring safe choice. Biden voters are less likely to stay on the phone and answer questions.
Also, national polls mean very little. You have to actually look at the swing state polls to find out who’s winning. And there’s not much data this far from the election.
Finally, we can tell there’s something wrong with current polling just because “Mr. Brainworms” RFK Jr polls around 10% right now. No one is going to vote for him, and definitely not 10% of the population. People are just fucking with the pollsters right now. Do you know anyone seriously considering voting for RFK Jr?
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You didn’t answer the question:
Do you know anyone who is voting for RFK Jr? He is polling at 10% right now, so if it’s real then statistically you should know someone.
It’s almost certainly true the RFK’s support will decline as we get closer to the election. This is a common trend with third party candidates.
However, it’s not totally clear which candidate those voters will choose. My sense is that RFK is not particularly popular but is a stand-in for the rejection of both candidates at the moment. However, most of these voters will switch over as the reality of RFK’s loss becomes more real. Often, last minute voting decisions will be based on the conditions and media narratives happening immediately around the time of the election. So the implications of what you’re saying on who will win are not certain currently.
Yes, that’s right. Basically you can’t rely on polls this far from the election.
The question says “if the election were held today, who would you vote for”. But the election isn’t today, and the person answering the question knows that. So you see more people answer with third party candidates then would actually vote that way.
Not only that, but candidates’ GOTV efforts do not happen until the election is approaching soon. That’s what actually wins elections, not polls from 6 months before.
That’s… not how statistics work there, friend. If there’s a 10% chance of something happening per person and I have ten people in a room, that doesn’t guarantee that one of them will have the thing happen. In fact, my sample could have 10/10 happenings or absolutely nothing happen and the statistic value would stay the same, because it’s an average of the entire population.
Trying to apply anecdotal evidence to statistics and then calling the statistic false when it doesn’t align with your anecdote is kinda doing things arse-backwards.
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Maybe. Maybe not. Pollsters typically adjust methodology between elections so this type of analysis is questionable.
He hasn’t led in the average but is currently within the margin of error. The available evidence suggests a toss up but we won’t know for sure until after the election, as always.
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Consistent in two elections? That’s not consistent. That’s not even data, let alone a trend.
As I said, pollsters adjust the demographic weighting based on election results. It is possible they will again underestimate Trump’s performance. It’s also possible they will overestimate it. Only time will tell.
But regardless of that issue, it is within the margin of error—that is a statistical reality irrelevant to your speculation about polling errors.
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Just remember polls gave Hillary almost a guaranteed win. For all intents and purposes, Trump is the front runner regardless of what any polling says
And the result were statistically within what they predicted. She did get the popular vote but lost in key states where the margins were small.
No, they did not. That’s not what happened.
Polling probably has taken a dive in accuracy since then, though. Uptake in cell phone use in younger generations has been lingering over the industry for a long time, and it’s finally caught up with them.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
72% chance from here. Probably high enough that swing state voters opted to stay home. This was the vibe practically all October. The FBI felt confident enough in her win to announce they were investigating her to appear unbiased.
Polling being inaccurate for whatever reason doesn’t change the article after article assuring everyone Hillary had it in the bag.
72% chance means Trump needed to flip two coins and have them both come up heads. It’s not that ridiculous.
From the nearly all the polls I see, yes. But like you said, bias of pollers. I’ve seen a few that go more in depth to try and figure out the “responds to polls” bias, but I still only see biden ahead by a margin. With those small numbers of concentrated effort vs the wide reach general polls, trump is. It does not instill any level of confidence in me that the “general” polls don’t reflect the “general” voting bias. Even without all of this analysis, just a few million voting for trump is unbelievably concerning to not just the future of the US, but the world that this single country dominates. These fascists are campaigning on the cut your nose to spite your face philosophy.
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