Such a bizarre chain of events
He was fired due to some discrepancy. Nadella said directly that he didn’t like it. And when he can’t use his 49% to bring Altman back, he hires him himself.
Without sarcasm: that makes total sense to me.
Real bonehead move on behalf of the OpenAI board. The guy is emergency fired in what is basically a shock to everybody including him, then the company panics and realizes they just lost their star racehorse and starts talking about getting him back. It’s fucking brain dead. When they fired him, he probably had a hundred job offers before he even made it down to the lobby. Even if whatever he did is truly awful, any company with AI ambitions would kill to have him on their payroll.
MS did well executing quickly here. They took a perfect opportunity to onboard an experienced AI team for pennies vs. what buying the rest of OpenAI would cost. And whatever Sam and his team build next is going to be 100% theirs. Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s an open job offer for OpenAI employees looking to follow Altman, with the promise of essentially unlimited resources to develop whatever and respect from management. For a talented AI researcher that’s a tempting offer.
It will also be interesting to see if Altman ends up demonstrating the dishonest behavior at Microsoft that he’s been accused of at OpenAI, with the former inheriting the mess that those who expelled him from the latter were hoping to avoid. His reputation and other endeavors, especially WorldCoin, don’t really give me much confidence in him, personally.
I like your take. Altman is a Valley hustler, albeit a talented one who ran YC. But, he’s not technologist or a theorist, and I suspect he’s not that interested in attempting to de-risk AGI anymore, particularly now that he’s experienced the market hype. The staff who want to be billionaires clotted to him; the staff who are committed to the original ethical vision stuck with Ilya.
My little theory is that he was in cahoots with Microsoft re some product roadmap, against the wishes of the board.
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Microsoft was not consulted re his firing as not to alert him or because there’s no point asking the revealed adversary.
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Microsoft was “furious” and desperately tried to reinstate him.
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Immediately offered him a job. Effectively undermining their investment in open ai.
Good points all around. There was a headline a day or two ago suggesting Microsoft is ready to put $50 billion into AI. If they are truly as all-in on AI as Meta is/was with VR, then something like this would make sense. OpenAI is of course at the front of things, but Microsoft still owns less than half and still has to answer to other investors.
But while OpenAI has valuable tech, the real value is the researchers who are building the next golden goose. Microsoft seems to understand that.
Look at that open letter. 500 out of 700 employees signed it and are threatening to leave. I think the key there is their equity compensation- many if not most of those 500 people were getting equity, and if OpenAI loses its place at the front of the pack that equity loses a lot of value. And the board just essentially killed their golden goose. So those 500 people are worried about the future of their stock. If it looks like the company is going down, the rats will dessert the sinking ship faster than you can snap your fingers as there will be no shortage of very lucrative offers.
I bet Microsoft is offering a very attractive life preserver for those who jump ship. Wouldn’t be surprised if, if a bunch of those people defect, the AI division get some sort of quasi autonomous status or perhaps even its own corporate entity for those employees to own stock in.
Point being- there’s a very good chance Microsoft will essentially buy OpenAI for mere pennies by simply hiring the majority of their employees.
Good points for you also.
However, as the situation unfolds… from the amount of effort being put in trying to get a hold of openAI by Altman/Microsoft…
It seems to me that there’s a lot of claimed real-estate (eg training data and weights, ongoing subscriptions, income streams, exclusive agreements etc) that would be nontrivial or impossible to be gotten hold of or recreated from scratch.
And as we know Altman is not involved in the nittty gritty, aka doesn’t know shit about shit in recreating what was there - so the initial bravado of “I’m just going to do my own” - was clearly a bluff that didn’t pay off.
Hence now is trying different ways to get back on the ship / get another hold of the golden goose.
To be honest the more I see his frantic manoeuvring the more I think he’s inconsequential to the endeavour and he just happened to be lucky - and these jerky moves, to me, demonstrate that he’s well aware of it.
Altman may not be an AI engineer. But he does appear to be an effective leader of an AI team, and he obviously has the loyalty of an awful lot of his employees. That could be because they are personally loyal to him, or because of their own self-interest with equity, but the situation remains. He put together a solid team once, he can probably do it again. But he also may not have to.
If Microsoft can vacuum up a majority of those 500 employees, if those people join Microsoft because they want to keep working for Altman, then whatever they are paying him is money well spent. And while Altman may not know the nitty gritty, those people do. Collectively they are probably worth more than he is.
Either way, Microsoft has successfully bet on both sides of the coin. Whether they build their own successful AI department, or whether OpenAI continues to succeed, or both, they’re going to come out on top.
The big question mark to me though why exactly the board chose to fire him in the first place. It’s been a good few days, and so far there’s not even a hint. That is strange to me. If whatever he did is awful, the board would want to justify itself. If whatever he did is benign, he would want to redeem his own image. The fact that there’s not even a leak is odd.
He does appear to have their loyalty, if reports are to be believed.
However even every single one of the OpenAI employees on board with him, they’re not taking existing IP with them. And to recreate it from scratch, it seems, would put them so far behind as to not be worth it. Otherwise why freak out about the workplace?
Re Microsoft, they do seem to have the least amount of risk, where at minimum they’ll keep what they have, while the max upside is 100% of everything.
Although even for that, there are some uncertainties that only people with inside knowledge might have. E.g. if MS were instrumental in Altman’s subterfuge that caused his firing, if the board doesn’t want MS involved if they can force them to divest their 49%. Doesn’t seem likely.
Or if the board can create a different for-profit where MS doesn’t have a part and let the other one wither.
Or the risk of massive lawsuits from OpenAI against MS if they wholesale take their employees re IP theft (we’ve seen it between apple, google and Amazon).
This may also be about trying to take control of OpenAI. Despite owning 49% of OpenAI, the company is seemingly set up so the 5 board members have control and they’re seemingly not under the control of investors.
Could this actually be about Altman and his allies trying to take the company fully for-profit so they could benefit? It also seems Altman is very close to Microsoft, so rather than product roadmap this might actually about trying to take control of the company.
Microsoft hiring the staff and forming an AI unit is a boon to them if it happens, but OpenAI still own and controls everything they’ve worked on up to date, and it seems the Investors don’t control that judging by the boards independance.
Meanwhile Altman is tweeting very concillatory OpenAI but pro Microsoft position. This may be a battle for the whole company, not just a personality thing.
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So Microsoft is going to compete with themselves? (Microsoft owns 49% of openai)
“I play both sides so I always come out ahead”
Sam probably still controls a ton of shares, so I think effectively this would give them >50% of shares as long as they are partnering.
Sam had 0 equity in OpenAI. 0 shares.
Wow really? I’ve never heard of a CEO not getting options.
Yea the whole setup they have going on is weird.
That’s honestly really sus
Back both horses and drop the one that loses the race.
The thing is that there many many horses in this race
Having two entrants is still better than one.
Not really if you have to divide resources between two. Computing necessary for training these models is not cheap and there is an obvious opportunity cost here.
MS has more than enough cash and resources to back two horses.
Computing necessary for training this models is not cheap and there is an obvious opportunity cost here.
This also gives them the luxury of trying a different approach.
Time will tell my guess is that Microsoft will sale its stake in openai or just drain openai from resources and people until it will disappear.
I have no idea what MS is doing with AI internally, but predictive text is only one of the avenues towards AGI which sure seems to be the direction OpenAI (and everyone else currently looking to sell a product) are going. There are certainly other directions MS can go in the same field without putting all their eggs in one basket.
Watch them flat out buy OpenAI then just reinstate these guys.
If OpenAI wanted to sell out, they wouldn’t have fired Altman
As much as I’d love to see them back in OpenAI, I don’t think Emmett Shear will give up.
I have a soft spot for Greg since he was the one who introduced the world to GPT 4 on that developer livestream
They’re only 2% short of being able to do that. I think Microsoft has a 49% stake.
Sam has to own at least a percent or two. Even if he doesn’t bring enough shares to the table to give Microsoft the edge they need, I’m guessing he’s friendly enough with a few shareholders to get them the rest of the way.
I think Sam famously has had a 0% stake
Huh, that’s interesting. But I still assume he must have a good enough relationship with enough investors to convince at least 2% of shareholders to back Microsoft if they were partnering with him on a resolution.
@silencioso competing with themselves isn’t that weird, for example Pfizer makes both Viagra and its generic competitor Avigra.
That’s got to be the lowest effort generic name in existence. “Ah just shift one of the letters to the start and let’s knock off early”
Just like cereal companies with name brands like fruit loops will make fruit spins. Why not take profit on the lower end of the market?
And there are many other examples too.
A lot of car manufacturers have brands for the upper class. Like Mercedes -> Maybach, Toyota -> Lexus, Seat -> Cupra. And tyre manufacturers have lower-end brands, like Michelin -> Kleber. Or, even better: a lot of store budget brands for milk, cheese, sausages etc. are manufactured by a big name brand, it’s right on the packaging with the little letters at the bottom. (Manufactured by: XYZ Big Name Brand Ltd.)
I had a teacher in high school, many decades ago, who had owned an orange juice processor. He explained that the generic store brand got the start and end of production runs; name brand got the middle.
Orange juice in particular is a very brand loyalty specific one because oranges naturally do not have a consistent flavor. The main distinguishing flavor between different brands is an additive each brand puts in to make it taste more like their brand of orange juice.
Same jacket, different pocket
Isn’t this effectively an acquihire for $0
Pretty sure Sam and Greg got A LOT of money to get „convinced“ to start at Microsoft
Even if you start dreaming up ludicrous salaries/options, the cost to hire them would be only a fraction of the hit Microsoft would take in the market if not for this play. Satya could comfortably let them name their price and say yes to anything.
This hand was played well by Satya.
Yep, Google is paying the price of having bard being a late comer and Facebook is scrambling to pivot from VR to AI. Everyone is now in this text prediction business and it looks like the bubble will explode even faster than NFTs
Bard is improving very quickly. It’s quicker to respond and gives a better response than ChatGPT a lot of the time. This drama will mean serious trouble for OpenAI.
Let me know when we get there. We are far from it yet. I will more than likely measure the burst when it’s removed from MS Office and MS stops making their own chips…But for now it’s full steam ahead into MS NFT’s
Indeed. Microsoft is definitely the winner.
Truth. Though, OpenAI was valued around 80 billion, I’d be reasonably surprised if either of them was being offered a billion.
I have the feeling that Microsoft will acquire OpenAI at some point. It just makes sense. OpenAI is nothing without Altmans vision.
Can you describe what you believe his vision is that you’re referring to and what you think others in the field are not doing correctly?
EEE
Eastern equine encephalitis?
Damnit, man, now I regret having eyes
He would join Microsoft. So much for making AI to benefit humanity.
This guy is a former (and current) crypto bro who just pivoted to the next tech buzzword. This shit was never gonna be a benefit to humanity.
Yeah, that’s some next level naïveté thinking Silicon Valley gives any fucks about anything other than number-go-up. Yikes.
The advent of AI feels more like the beginning of what will probably end in revolution… The bloody kind. They’re going to replace as many humans as they possibly can until the masses get hungry enough to finally eat the rich.
Microsoft slept on phones and tablets, they are not sleeping on AI. And good! Software has always been Microsoft’s superpower.
gets the popcorn
Well, good for them. Jury’s out on if that’s good for us regular schmucks
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Software has always been Microsoft’s superpower
You mean buying software, right?
Selling software.
Selling bought software
Buying sold software.
Acquiring liquidated software
Or cloning popular software
cough CP/M cough
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Removed by mod
OpenAI shot themselves in the legs with a 12-gauge shotgun when they fired Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.
Expect Microsoft Copilot to eclipse ChatGPT.
They were right, he never opened the technology.
The Board though is unlikely to face any personal consequences though. 3 out of the 4 of them are CEOs of their own companies, with the fourth being OpenAI’s chief scientist.
Regardless, this move will very much tank OpenAI since now the advantage is in Microsoft’s court.
I see this a lot, but two people, especially those not doing the work, do not make a company. They started something great, but hundreds of talented people have been driving the ship for a long time now.
Which way did the scientist vote?
The scientist was the ringleader around the effort of ousting Altman, apparently.
Doubt it very much. Alt-man is just a grifter and the limits have been reached for the word predictor. The only thing Microsoft has been doing is hype and pissing off customers with it.
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My bad. It’s yet another hallucinating word predictor.
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Hahahahaha
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Hahahahaha
Bubble go POP & no one cared.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Microsoft has hired OpenAI co-founders Sam Altman and Greg Brockman to head up a “new advanced AI research team,” the software conglomerate’s chief Satya Nadella said Monday, capping three days of intense discussions following the unexpected decision by OpenAI’s board to dismiss Altman.
Nadella said Altman and Brockman will be joined by “colleagues,” suggesting that Microsoft is also hiring many other people who left OpenAI over the weekend.
“We look forward to moving quickly to provide them with the resources needed for their success,” said Nadella, in what many tech entrepreneurs labelled as an example of “incredible execution.”
Nadella, whose firm has invested over $10 billion in OpenAI and acquired almost 50% ownership, said the Windows-maker remains committed to the startup.
The decision comes after a tumultuous weekend that saw Altman removed from his role at OpenAI by the organization’s board on Friday.
“The board had a chance to explain their drastic actions and they did not take it,” wrote Andrej Karpathy, a research scientist at OpenAI, on X.
The original article contains 387 words, the summary contains 169 words. Saved 56%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
Plot thickens
Didn’t take long for Sam. Huh.
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Good to know Microsoft has no qualms with hiring someone being accused of raping their own sister…
Capitalism - no morals, only profit!
Was he convicted? Accusations are free to make
They are, yet less than 2% of accusations are actually false, so piss off with the “only accusations” bullshit as if it isn’t at least a massive red banner of a flag.
That’s an interesting stat - where are you getting that from?
Different sources claim different numbers, but the rate is considered by most sources to be low.
While the statistics on false allegations vary – and refer most often to rape and sexual assault – they are invariably and consistently low. Research for the Home Office suggests that only 4% of cases of sexual violence reported to the UK police are found or suspected to be false. Studies carried out in Europe and in the US indicate rates of between 2% and 6%.
https://theconversation.com/heres-the-truth-about-false-accusations-of-sexual-violence-88049
Thank you
Their arse.
4chan
my source is that I made it the fck up
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So he wasn’t convicted.
Innocent until proven guilty bud.
Innocent until proven guilty bud.
That means the government shouldn’t just start throwing everyone in jail at the first accusation. That doesn’t mean the public can’t or shouldn’t act on the information.
The information that nobody has proven in a court of law? That’s for barbarians
You do realize that people also have the right of free association? The government needs to meet a very high standard before it can deprive someone of life, liberty, or property. Members of the public may refuse to do business with a person, or socially ostracize them, based on whatever information they have available.
Sure but then don’t pretend there is anything righteous about it, it’s just rumours until proven.
That’s referring to guilt in a court of law. Altman definitely did it
proof?
This isn’t Reddit. We need receipts
could you elaborate on that?
Regarding the alleged rape, in short: The sexual acts are not even explicitly stated and allegedly occurred when she was young enough to barely be able to remember or understand anything, she went decades without saying a word to anyone about it. Then they have a dispute over an inheritance, and a couple of years later when he becomes famous she publicly accuses him, without providing evidence or reporting him to the courts.
I have not read her accusations but I don’t think your criticism is really valid.
You can’t publicly accuse someone if neither of you is a public figure. It just doesn’t work that way. You need a platform that comes after at least one of the parties is famous.
Also, testimony from the victim is evidence. In the case of old sexual assault cases, it’s quite often the only evidence. But if all you have is fuzzy memories from decades ago, you know that’s not going to get you anywhere in court so why would you even attempt a legal claim?
The fact that an ostensible child sexual assault victim does not have additional evidence, or does not file a police report or civil suit, shouldn’t be used to discount their claims.
…? In my comment I literally said that she did it when he became famous.
The testimony of the accusers is not evidence, it can be evidence. To be so, it must be supported by sufficient circumstantial evidence to convince the courts.
It is true that reporting old cases is difficult, but it is often done successfully, and is the only way to obtain true justice. That someone is willing to go through the pain of public exposure but won’t even try it in court doesn’t prove anything, but it is very suspicious.
Especially if doing so publicly not only fails to state evidence or claim to have evidence, but doesn’t even make the accusations explicit; it looks like an attempt to avoid being sued.It is not that I wish to discredit her pseudo-statements, but it is important that people understand how little there is, because every time his name appears on the internet there is a tough campaign of harassment by people who just parrot it.
You could just as easily look it up yourself, and I hate to link xitter, but here’s her post:
https://twitter.com/xriskology/status/1710008424178581553?lang=en-GBthanks
When you don’t have the means to innovate, this sort of thing is what you do.
