Ukraine Just Blew Up Russia’s Main Missile Base In Occupied Crimea
www.forbes.com
It’s fair to call the Cape Tarkhankut site the linchpin of Russian air and naval defenses across the Black Sea. Which is why the Ukrainian armed forces blew it up.
    • oatscoop@midwest.socialEnglish
      361·
      1 year ago

      I’d agree, yet I keep seeing people argue the counteroffensive is going poorly for Ukraine because they’re not making serious gains in recapturing territory. People forget that there are many ways to “win” a war: one of which is the enemy simply giving up and withdrawing. Chipping away at the enemy’s ability or will to continue fighting is a path to victory.

      You don’t need to steamroll the enemy if you make it militarily, politically, or economically untenable for them to hold a position.

    • assassin_aragorn@lemmy.worldEnglish
      8·
      1 year ago

      I remember reading recently that Western powers assessed why the counter offensive wasn’t working as well as it could, and they determined it was troop placement I believe. I’m willing to bet they provided advice here to get them back on track.

      • KevonLooney@lemm.eeEnglish
        21·
        1 year ago

        Well, there are tons of minefields and dug in defenders too. I would 100% not want to be attacking that. Supposedly the Russians put two mines on top of each other so even mine resistant vehicles aren’t safe.

        Although I recently read that the Ukrainians only need to push about 10 or 15 KM more. They won’t be at the Azov Sea but their artillery will cover the area. That means no private trucks will want to supply Crimea from that direction. So they are close.

        The Ukrainians are literally fighting a war for their homes. The Russians are not. This is Vietnam all over again. There’s no way for Russia to “win” unless they just leave and falsely claim victory.

        • GoodEye8@lemm.eeEnglish
          12·
          1 year ago

          It really isn’t like Vietnam.

          The US was extremely effective in Vietnam, I think it was something like 50k US KIA/MIA and 800k north Vietnam. If the US wanted to just steamroll the entire country they could’ve done it with relative ease. US lost because they didn’t want to steamroll, they wanted the southern Vietnam to take the ground after the US wiped the enemy out and it just didn’t work. US lost not because they couldn’t win, but because they chose a strategy that didn’t let them win. The US lost to their own arrogance.

          Russia isn’t even effective, Ukraine is doing a much better job at killing than Russia. And Russia actually wanted to steamroll Ukraine, and failed critically. Russia will most likely lose because they actually can’t win. Russia will lose to their own incompetence.

        • The Quuuuuill@slrpnk.netEnglish
          6·
          1 year ago

          Yeah for as boneheadedly stupid as Russia has demonstrated themselves to be throughout this engagement, last years thunder runs were never going to be as successful this year as they were last year. Last years deep penetrating attacks were fun for watching the lines on the map move, but ultimately lacked grand operational value. They were high strategic value, to be sure, as they boosted morale, but the factors of asymmetric warfare are shifting. Russia will continue to have more materiel but aide has been balancing that, meanwhile Ukraine is receiving higher quality equipment and better trained operatives. I think the two big changes are Russia is learning lessons from last year and being more defensive this year, and similarly, Ukraine has been forced to learn their allies are much more willing to provide military aide for field testing than they are to provide the strategic goods Ukraine needs to take care of their populace. The result is Ukraine has much more offensive capabilities but is more interested in bolstering defenses to enter winter when the strategic value of glass increases.

          Both sides are much less interested in knock out blows now that they’ve penetrated the others defenses and realized they don’t have the capabilities to execute those. The war has slowed down as both sides try to make sustainable holdable advances as well as bleed the other side faster than their own side bleeds to death. The question is, does Russia have more blood to bleed that Ukraine can ever draw, or is Ukraine bleeding faster than they can sustain long enough to bleed Russia out. I’m no expert, but my observation is that it seems like Russia is overly confident in how much blood they have. Sure the Wagner rebellion fizzled out and Preghozhin is presumed dead, but everyone saw it. The Russian populace is starting to get uncomfortable with the numbers of rapists and murders receiving pardons to go rape and murder Ukrainians before returning home to continue their vile ways. The Russian populace experienced something like 1 year of freedom following the fall of the Soviet Union before the current fascist movement took power and has over 1000 years of learned helplessness, but Putin is seemingly pushing every single button and pulling every single lever that could result in his people finally saying “enough is enough”

      • bobman@unilem.orgEnglish
        4·
        1 year ago

        They expected Ukrainians to use their men like cannon fodder to break through russian defenses.

        It’s fucking stupid, I know, but most Western officials are just espousing talking points to please their constituents. None of them should really be taken all that seriously.

          • assassin_aragorn@lemmy.worldEnglish
            131·
            1 year ago

            It’ll be there always tempting them, but it will be a grievous mistake if they give into that temptation.

        • bobman@unilem.orgEnglish
          46·
          1 year ago

          China will never invade Taiwan unless it wants a war with the US.

          Idk why you people keep saying otherwise as though you have a point. 50 upvotes? Really? Come on guys. Wake up to fearmongering.

          • 31337@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
            11·
            1 year ago

            The investment and business class seem to think it’s at least a possibility. It’s why Bershire Hathaway sold their TSMC shares and why TSMC has started building foundries outside of Taiwan.

            Taiwan has no defensive treaties, and an invasion wouldn’t automatically bring anyone else into the war. China, like Russia, is a nuclear power, so I doubt nuclear nations would directly join the war. It would be another Russia-Ukraine war situation, but economically catastrophic (because of this, I doubt China would invade unless it gets into an economic state where it doesn’t have much to lose).

  • PottedPlant@lemmy.worldEnglish
    103·
    1 year ago

    The messaging coming from Budenov, the Ukrainian head of intelligence:

    “We have the ability to hit any part of the temporarily occupied Crimea as of now. Absolutely at any point we can get the enemy. Those who have done stupid things, it’s better for them to leave,”

    “And those who are waiting must prepare and do everything to help, first of all, the intelligence agencies, and then further, when the troops go into the open.”

    Psyops for sure, but part of me wants it to happen. Now with this battery gone it definitely sets the stage.

    • andrei_chiffa@lemmy.worldEnglish
      221·
      1 year ago

      I don’t think it’s only a psyops.

      One think is getting hit by drones and missiles. It’s a whole different level to not spot a landing squad crossing almost 100km of sea, land and blow up your critical military installation.

      They likely already did it last year, when they blew up planes on a Russian base in Crimea, but it is nice to see that they still very much can do it.

      • M0oP0o@mander.xyzEnglish
        9·
        1 year ago

        russia seems to be bad at spotting and stopping anything armed in territory not currently on the front (or maybe there too?).

      • Treczoks@lemmy.worldEnglish
        2·
        1 year ago

        That is one of the key points of this war. The Russian army is an army of the age of tanks, with a handful of air support and some missiles. The Ukrainian army has already entered the age of drones, and uses it wisely.

    • lemme_at_it@lemmy.worldEnglish
      92·
      1 year ago

      I read a theory about why Ukraine has not completely destroyed the bridge to Crimea, even if they were able to, was to leave a way out & not fight the occupying troops into a corner, at which point their destructive unpredictability is worse than just letting them leave . This could be similar

      • severien@lemmy.worldEnglish
        51·
        1 year ago

        No, that doesn’t make a lot of sense. Russia has enough boats/ships to evacuate Crimea if they wanted. They used to supply the whole Crimea woth ships before the bridge was built.

        If Ukraine could, they would definitely destroy the bridge. But it’s just very difficult task.

        • ChonkyOwlbear@lemmy.worldEnglish
          3·
          1 year ago

          Putin would forbid any evacuation plans. A bridge allows scared soldiers a way to run away without permission from command.

          • severien@lemmy.worldEnglish
            11·
            1 year ago

            WTF, the bridge has checkpoints on both sides, you’re not going to somehow sneak thousands of soldiers.

              • severien@lemmy.worldEnglish
                11·
                1 year ago

                You think they would mutiny? Then they can just steal some of the many ships in the harbors.

                And again, 20 km long bridge is a perfect place to destroy / stop whatever you want. It’s a chokepoint, hell to get through if the other sode doesn’t want to let you go through.

  • theodewere@kbin.social
    561·
    1 year ago

    i wonder if Russians realize how nervous they should be… maybe seeing Russians shoot down Russians outside Moscow will start to wake them up…

      • CitizenKong@lemmy.worldEnglish
        41·
        1 year ago

        What I don’t get: Doesn’t this turn the Wagner mercenaries into even more of loose cannons? What’s stopping them to just fracture into chaotic splinter groups now?

        • kent_eh@lemmy.caEnglish
          201·
          1 year ago

          As soon as these mercenaries stop getting paid, they’ll wander off and find another paymaster.

          • SuddenDownpour@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
            2·
            1 year ago

            Note that a good chunk of contemporary Wagner soldiers are forcibly recruited criminals. If there’s something less reliable than a mercenary, that’s a forcibly recruited criminal.

        • theodewere@kbin.social
          181·
          1 year ago

          his name is a really easy banner to fly now… he basically can’t do anything wrong anymore… he died a hero trying to save Russians from the corruption of Putin… the anger will just grow, especially once that army in Ukraine starts knocking on doors inside Russia…

          everyone sees that Putin just did it because he was AFRAID of Prigozhin

          • paddirn@lemmy.worldEnglish
            13·
            1 year ago

            Even though I think that’s how it may have played in the West, it seemed like Prigozhin stayed pretty loyal to Putin all throughout, he was really careful to not lay any blame on Putin, more that he was misled. If anything, I wonder if blame will be placed on Shoigu, the Defense minister, that’s who Prigozhin’s beef was with I thought. I’d assume there will be some mob-style reprisals against Shoigu and/or the military leadership rather than against Putin himself. That still may benefit Ukrainians regardless.

            • barsoap@lemm.eeEnglish
              6·
              1 year ago

              Putin won’t axe Shoigu he’s his perfectly loyal Tuvan pet… not necessarily loyal to Putin (he started under Yeltsin), but to the office of the president: Shoigu is guaranteed to not make a move for office because he has no chance in the first place because racism.

              He’s pretty much the only person among the Siloviki who is guaranteed to not use their position as head of the army to putsch. Shoigu’s best play is to be loyal to whoever happens to be his boss, and that’s what he’s doing. He may be otherwise incompetent bu he understands politics.

              (Side note: Tuva does have a kickass national anthem, with throat singing and everything)

              • macracanthorhynchus@mander.xyzEnglish
                2·
                1 year ago

                Thank you for linking that. The anthem absolutely slaps. Now I wish I was Tuvan. Or, at the very least, I wish the Russian Federation would collapse so Tuva can participate in the Olympics under their own flag, and then I will cheer for them so I can hear this anthem.

            • theodewere@kbin.social
              5·
              1 year ago

              i don’t disagree with one bit of your analysis, i’m just not sure Shoigu will be enough once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways… popcorn time in any case, like you say…

              • athos77@kbin.social
                3·
                1 year ago

                once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways

                I doubt the West will supply arms for a large-scale invasion of Russia. They’ve already made it clear that the stuff that they are supplying is to be used only in Ukraine, occupied Ukraine, and Crimea, and not anywhere in Russia proper. And Ukraine has been very careful to strike inside Russia only with weapons that do not come from Western governments, and to aim only at military and government targets inside Russia. I doubt a ‘real’ invasion will happen. Drone worries and border skirmishes, certainly; actual march-on-Moscow invasion, I doubt it.

                • theodewere@kbin.social
                  1·
                  1 year ago

                  nothing on this Earth is going to stop that Army… they will do what they want now… you just expressed every Russian’s delusional dream…

                  Russians have some waking up in store for them

        • hdnsmbt@feddit.deEnglish
          12·
          1 year ago

          Nothing, and a few probably will. But a few small groups are much more easily handled. I wouldn’t be surprised if smashing the group was the main motivation behind the plane crash.

          • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
            11·
            1 year ago

            a few small groups are much more easily handled

            What about just one guy with a grudge and a shoulder-fired missile launcher (anti-aircraft or anti-tank, depending on how you prefer to travel)? I’m sure Putin himself has countermeasures but he may still have problems unless his men can track down every Wagnerite who may have taken home a souvenir from Ukraine.

        • awwwyissss@lemm.eeEnglish
          7·
          1 year ago

          That’s a really good question. Lots of implications. Will they attack the Kremlin? Will they continue stabilizing dictatorships in Africa? Will the Kremlin get control of them and use them in Ukraine? Revenge assassinations?